Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.100476 0.113702 0.128014 0.144653 0.163468 0.184089 0.208411
2025-12-28 0.081117 0.098628 0.118964 0.144333 0.175149 0.211393 0.257302
2026-01-04 0.064959 0.084329 0.108324 0.140248 0.181648 0.233589 0.303826
2026-01-11 0.053684 0.074123 0.101026 0.139056 0.191514 0.261461 0.362067
2026-01-18 0.045431 0.066498 0.095866 0.139840 0.204150 0.295001 0.433565
2026-01-25 0.036710 0.056782 0.086324 0.133034 0.205239 0.312981 0.486711
2026-02-01 0.029574 0.048200 0.077062 0.125115 0.203405 0.326460 0.535654
2026-02-08 0.024603 0.042140 0.070676 0.120581 0.206059 0.347225 0.599613
2026-02-15 0.020521 0.036846 0.064673 0.115665 0.207263 0.365826 0.663259
2026-02-22 0.018199 0.034184 0.062668 0.117251 0.219867 0.405688 0.770661
2026-03-01 0.015471 0.030331 0.057951 0.113175 0.221591 0.426511 0.847018
2026-03-08 0.013349 0.027265 0.054192 0.110264 0.225002 0.450948 0.934471
2026-03-15 0.011546 0.024581 0.050854 0.107867 0.229539 0.479326 1.037143
2026-03-22 0.010475 0.023215 0.049930 0.110268 0.244397 0.531111 1.198469
2026-03-29 0.009245 0.021298 0.047554 0.109190 0.251706 0.568462 1.335847
2026-04-05 0.008320 0.019899 0.046075 0.109863 0.263097 0.616809 1.507682
2026-04-12 0.007595 0.018839 0.045181 0.111749 0.277695 0.675075 1.714418
2026-04-19 0.006571 0.016878 0.041870 0.107265 0.276193 0.695240 1.831757
2026-04-26 0.005629 0.014954 0.038329 0.101586 0.270712 0.704813 1.924243
2026-05-03 0.004947 0.013581 0.035932 0.098437 0.271242 0.729767 2.062653
2026-05-10 0.004336 0.012286 0.033521 0.094824 0.269900 0.749665 2.191406
2026-05-17 0.004019 0.011748 0.033035 0.096435 0.283371 0.812106 2.453739
2026-05-24 0.003556 0.010713 0.031014 0.093322 0.282771 0.835205 2.605284